Task: Analyzing costs in a large project

It’s about creating a holistic view of the projects and especially that we include the external uncertainties and identify the 10 most important ones.

Henrik led us through an analysis of a large project, giving us a big picture, a Top 10 list of uncertainties, a robust budget and the start of our action plans.

It was a really good process and the top 10 list proved to be a useful tool. With this background, we were then able to navigate our way around the worst ‘icebergs’.

Head of Division, Nico Jørgensen

Task: Risk management in relation to goal achievement from a 3-year perspective.

Management wanted to identify the uncertainties for their performance.

Who did what?

• We delivered a 3-day workshop where management identified uncertainties, revenues and expenses
• The Executive Board and the Chairman of the Board provided input during the process
• We delivered a visual process that led participants through a Successive analysis

Result: A 3-year result with an indication of the Top10 uncertainties and a number of practical action plans.

We contacted Henrik k Søndergaard as we wanted to pressure test our profit and budget ambitions for a 3-year period and at the same time get an overview of the company’s risk picture.

Henrik led us safely through an analysis using the Successive Principle, where we identified and quantified the most important risks and uncertainties.

We then created action plans for the most significant issues.
Furthermore, we gained a shared understanding of how the method works and can be used for analysis in other situations.

CEO, Erik Yde

Task: Uncertainty analysis of project budget

We needed an overview of a large project for planning purposes.

We invited Henrik K Søndergaard to lead us through a workshop where we could pressure test our budget and gain insight into the uncertainties of the project.

Analysis:
We were a broader group than usual investigating the project and Henrik guided us through a Successive Analysis.

Results:
This meant that we all got a good insight into the project, costs and not least the uncertainties.

We became aware of other risks by sitting together and brainstorming about them. We got a Top 10 list of uncertainties, even though there were many others in the project.
We then created some practical action plans.

We are now aware of our own risks that we can act on – and have insight into risks that point towards the customer. In addition, we received an assessment of the robustness of the existing budget.

All in all, a method and process that we can recommend.

Project Manager, Nickolai Buus Petersen

Task: Uncertainty analysis of SW offers

OFFER FOR A MUNICIPAL SW PROJECT
We were in a situation where we had to provide a quote for a SW task to a municipality. The project was not clearly described, so we wanted to get a good picture of the uncertainties before we made an offer.

We had Henrik K. Søndergaard (COMPILOT) to guide us through an uncertainty analysis based on the Successive Principle.

Unknown Unknowns
This turned out to be a good idea when our eyes were opened to Unknown Unknowns. What we didn’t know – that we didn’t know, about the project – well, there were many unknowns and factors in the deliverables and not least outside the deliverables.

With Henrik’s help, we estimated the minor and major Unknown Unknowns. So, how many could come and how many hours could they cost per piece.

Shared insights
We got a shared impression of the project and the associated risk picture, including a Top 10 list of the most important ones.

We highly recommend using the method and Henrik to facilitate analysis.

KB Software CEO, Klaus Bjørnestad
Mentor-IT Key account manager, Carl Gabriel

Task: Final check of a € Bill. Business Case

We were in a situation where we needed to test the business case for a large offshore wind farm. We had our own models and with such a large investment wanted an external assessment.

We had Henrik K Søndergaard model the business case using a top-down method (Successive Principle), which could relatively quickly calculate the project’s key figures: Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV) and payback time.

Above all, this method can calculate the uncertainties for the key figures and show the Top10 uncertainties in the business case even with all the details and information included in such a model.

We analyzed different configurations of the wind farm and gained a deeper understanding of the project’s uncertainties and insights into possible choices and action plans.

It was a very good supplement to our own internal models – it gave us the opportunity to evaluate our calculations.

I highly recommend using the method if you want an early assessment of the uncertainties in your business cases/projects.

Bo Svoldgaard, Vattenfall – Head of Engineering and Technology, BA Wind.

Task: Uncertainty analysis of costs

The company
SkyLifter develops modern air cranes for sustainable transportation of heavy components over land and sea. The company wanted an uncertainty analysis of one of their main projects.

We (COMPILOT) did a virtual successive analysis during a series of workshops on Zoom.

I interviewed CEO Jeremy Fitton after the analysis.

Why was this useful?
Bringing external participants into the analysis adds a lot of value. It helps identify uncertainties – many processes do. But here, it allowed us to focus our time on the things that really matter.

The Successive Principle requires a wide range of internal and external people who are better able to identify things that we wouldn’t have thought of ourselves. These 3rd party perspectives were really valuable and a big plus for team performance!

Benefits of identifying uncertainties
Identifying these risks (uncertainties) creates more confidence that we are on the right track with the financial community, investors and management. Applying the Successive Principle early in the project helps put the project on track and helps managers allocate resources more efficiently for the most significant uncertainties. Overall, we were very happy that we did it, thank you.

Can any business use the method?
Yes, I think so. Any company with large projects, with large capital at risk will benefit no matter when the successive process is applied.

CEO Jeremy Fitton, SkyLifter Ltd.

Project start-up of a larger SW project

Starting point:
The customer wanted an experienced project manager to thoroughly prepare a SW project.

A SW module was to be delivered in a major SW update in preparation for the Power2X market.

Tasks:
Preparation and execution of project start-up:

• Stakeholder management, secure contributions and buy-in
• Budget and gate plan
• Risk identification and management in a new system
• Bring the project team to agile working methods
• Sprint planning and Scrum meetings
• Gate passage: Preparation and execution

My actions:

• Alignment of activities with stakeholders
• Engagement with the core group
• Estimating budget using a “new” model of three-point estimation
• Performing risk management, budgeting, planning and communication activities according to the project model

We achieved:

This gave the project a robust start.

• Internal stakeholder engagement
• An agreed resource plan
• Approved gate passage by providing a structured overview of budget, plan and deliverables

Task: Project management, technical development of an offshore wind turbine

Starting point
Siemens Offshore and Statoil were to jointly develop the first commercial version of a wind turbine with a floating foundation.

A demo offshore park of 5 6MW wind turbines (at the time one of the largest commercial onshore turbines) was to be established.

Tasks as Technical PM:
The main tasks were

• To collect and process customer (Statoil) requests for changes to the existing product
• To delegate tasks in the offshore department
• To monitor the completion of tasks
• To mediate in the customer’s wishes based on the possibilities/specification the product can deliver
• Ensuring internal resource management
• To report in relation to internal stage gate model
• Managing internal stakeholders

Photo: Concept Illustration and Animation, www.CIA. no

Target audience:
Project engineers, project managers, project managers and project directors who work with planning and have a basic knowledge of planning.

Content:

1. Intro to the topic
2. Introduction to early quality assurance via the Successive method
   • Theory, analysis group, process
3. Analyzing the duration of a project (simple case)
   • Convenient visual set up
   • Network diagram
   • Estimating activities, strokes and layers
   • Estimation of general uncertainties and either/or risks
   • Creating the MS Plan and building in resilience
4. Questions and reflection

Advantages of this method:

• You gain a shared understanding and ownership of the project
• You get to identify the top 10 uncertainties among 1000’s of things in the project
• You get an S-curve so you can choose the robustness of the plan
• You can opt out of bad projects where the schedule/project is unrealistic/unprofitable
• You can identify schedule optimizations
• You get a better project economy
• Reduce stress in the organization, in the project and in families at home

Testimonials from participants:

• Good committed trainer with lots of positive energy and competent in his field. Afterwards, great refreshments and plenty of space to network with the trainer.
• Very competent speaker and engaging participants.
• Exciting talk – Good brainstorming. Thank you for a well-organized event!
• Great atmosphere, lots of questions, Ping Pong, etc. Extremely knowledgeable, well-prepared and passionate about the subject matter. Great idea with networking and sandwiches after the event.
• Too bad more people didn’t get to enjoy this great event.

Yield – IDA Process, John Thomsen

We were delighted to be inspired by Henrik’s method and visual way of introducing participants to the topic of robust plans.

We were inspired and got slides, dialogues and a practical process recipe for identifying and estimating uncertainties – separately from the environment.

We highly recommend Henrik as a speaker and inspiration in project management.

Webinars, seminars
Henrik K Søndergaard has held/holds inspiring speeches for e.g:

• IDA Build, IDA Process, IDA Risk
• Project management associations: Denmark, Faroe Islands and Iceland
• Byggeøkonomerne, Rådgiverforeningen Færøerne and others.

Another example.